On Tuesday you asked for the lift across total inventory, as a range, year over year. The October snapshot sized two things we could measure cleanly on the 95 homes with two full years of history, in peak season only, at full value. This page runs the same measures on every active home for a full year, adds things that only show across the whole book, and then counts only the share we expect to actually sell. Pacer's estimate throughout. Growth is not in the number.
The $270K in the October snapshot covered 95 homes and one season. It is not a separate number from this one. It is the first line of it. Each line below adds to the one before it, until we reach everything we found across all 206 homes: $2.41M if every night sold at full rate. That will not happen, so Part B shows the share we expect to actually sell. A gap night is an empty night, or two or three in a row, stuck between two bookings or owner stays.
| What is added | Homes | Adds | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|
| The October snapshot: empty nights between bookings in peak season, June 1 to September 7 ($180K), plus May and September nights lost to higher rates ($92K). | 95 | $270K | $270K |
| The same two measures, same dates, on the other 111 homes. Small, because most are newer, have fewer bookings, and so have fewer empty nights sitting between two stays. | 111 | +$100K | $370K |
| New: every other empty night, one to three in a row, between two bookings or owner stays, on all 206 homes. This is the rest of the year, plus nights next to owner stays at any time. Across the full year there are 2,364 empty nights of this kind, valued at each month's rate. The peak-season ones between two guest stays are already counted above. | 206 | +$971K | $1.34M |
| New: newer homes earning less than established homes. The 108 homes that started in 2025 and 2026 earn $164 in rent per available night. Homes in service before 2025 earn $197. | 108 | +$980K | $2.32M |
| New: Thanksgiving, Christmas week and New Year's. These are 37%, 28% and 30% booked today. Last year they finished 70%, 73% and 91% booked. This line is selling the open nights up to where last year finished, at rates that stay $100 above last year's. | 206 | +$89K | $2.41M |
| Everything we found, if every night sold at full rate | 206 | $2.41M |
May and September are counted net across the 108 homes with two years of history, Labor Day weekend removed, so the $73K for those homes is lower than the $92K on the 95 same-store homes alone: some homes sold more nights. Maintenance blocks are not counted as empty nights. The snapshot's 289 peak gap nights reproduce exactly under this method. Part of the newer-homes line is the homes themselves, not the pricing, so we count only a fraction of it below.
Empty nights between bookings usually sell at a discount, or not at all, so we value them at 75% of the month's normal rate and count only a share of them. Newer homes earn $164 per available night against $197 for established homes. We do not assume they close that whole difference in one year. We count 15% to 35% of it. The three cases below use different shares of the same nights. The estimate is $470K to $1.04M, with the middle case at $790K.
| Source | If every night sold | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empty nights between bookings and owner stays, full year | $1.27M | $238K | $381K | $477K |
| May and September pricing | $73K | $44K | $73K | $95K |
| Newer homes catching up to established homes | $980K | $147K | $245K | $343K |
| Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's at higher rates | $89K | $44K | $89K | $124K |
| Total per year, gross | $2.41M | $473K | $788K | $1.04M |
| Per home per year | $2,300 | $3,800 | $5,000 |
In every case empty nights sell at 75% of the month's rate. Low: we sell 25% of those nights and close 15% of the newer-homes difference, with May and September at 60% and holidays at 50%. Mid: 40% and 25%, with May, September and holidays in full. High: 50% and 35%, with May and September at 130% and holidays at 140%.
Every number here comes from counted nights on your own calendar, not from a growth assumption or a portfolio average. We left out anything we could not measure, including new homes and growth. Your same-store homes already grew 11.8% without us, so this is what is left on the calendar after that. It is an estimate to plan against, not a guarantee.
The 206 homes with at least one guest night booked on or after September 1, 2026, in Beyond or PriceLabs. Homes with none, such as homes that have not hosted since May, are left out. The date is the night the guest stays, not the day the booking was made. The estimate uses 12 months of rent on those homes, with the 44 homes that started in 2026 counted as if they had a full year. Rent is before OTA commission and excludes cleaning fees and tax.
Homes signed since September with no booking yet, homes in Guesty but not yet in a pricing tool, and the 10 or more contracts a month you are signing now. Each established home adds $2,300 to $5,000 a year to this number as it comes on, so the 2027 book is worth more than the figure above. Owner rights are unchanged in every case; we only price the empty nights around an owner stay, nothing else.