On Tuesday you asked for the lift across total inventory, as a range, year over year. The October snapshot sized two things we could measure cleanly on the 95 homes with two full years of history, in peak season only, at full value. This page runs the same measures on every active home for a full year, adds things that only show across the whole book, and then counts only the share we expect to actually sell. Pacer's estimate throughout. Growth is not in the number.
The $270K in the October snapshot covered 95 homes and one season. It is not a separate number from this one. It is the first line of it. Each line below adds to the one before it, until we reach everything we found across all 206 homes: $2.41M if every night sold at full rate. That will not happen, so Part B shows the share we expect to actually sell. A gap night is an empty night, or two or three in a row, stuck between two bookings.
| What is added | Homes | Adds | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|
| The October snapshot: empty nights between bookings in peak season, June 1 to September 7 ($180K), plus May and September nights lost to higher rates ($92K). | 95 | $270K | $270K |
| The same two measures, same dates, on the other 111 homes. Small, because most are newer, have fewer bookings, and so have fewer empty nights sitting between two stays. | 111 | +$100K | $370K |
| Empty nights between bookings in the rest of the year, outside June 1 to September 7, on all 206 homes. There are 1,312 of these nights across the full year, valued at each month's rate. | 206 | +$410K | $780K |
| New: empty nights next to an owner stay. One to three nights in a row, with an owner stay on one side and a guest booking or another block on the other. Not counted in the line above. | 206 | +$561K | $1.34M |
| New: newer homes earning less than established homes. The 108 homes that started in 2025 and 2026 earn $164 in rent per available night. Homes in service before 2025 earn $197. | 108 | +$980K | $2.32M |
| New: Thanksgiving, Christmas week and New Year's. These are 37%, 28% and 30% booked today. Last year they finished 70%, 73% and 91% booked. This line is selling the open nights up to where last year finished, at rates that stay $100 above last year's. | 206 | +$89K | $2.41M |
| Everything we found, if every night sold at full rate | 206 | $2.41M |
May and September are counted net across the 108 homes with two years of history, Labor Day weekend removed, so the $73K for those homes is lower than the $92K on the 95 same-store homes alone: some homes sold more nights. Gap nights and nights next to owner stays exclude owner stays and maintenance blocks. The snapshot's 289 peak gap nights reproduce exactly under this method. Part of the newer-homes line is the homes themselves, not the pricing, so we count only a fraction of it below.
A gap night usually sells at a discount, or not at all. Empty nights next to an owner stay are harder to sell than a gap between two guests, because they are often a single night and the owner's dates can still move. Newer homes earn $164 per available night against $197 for established homes. We do not assume they close that whole difference in one year. We count 15% to 35% of it. The three cases below use different shares of the same nights. The quoted range is $500K to $900K, with the midpoint near $700K.
| Source | If every night sold | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empty nights between bookings, full year | $710K | $160K | $256K | $332K |
| Empty nights next to owner stays | $561K | $84K | $135K | $191K |
| May and September pricing | $73K | $44K | $73K | $95K |
| Newer homes catching up to established homes | $980K | $147K | $245K | $343K |
| Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's at higher rates | $89K | $44K | $89K | $124K |
| Total per year, gross | $2.41M | $480K | $800K | $1.09M |
| Per home per year | $2,300 | $3,900 | $5,300 |
Low: we sell 30% of empty nights between bookings and 20% of nights next to owner stays, at 75% of the month's rate; we close 15% of the newer-homes difference; May, September and holidays at 60% and 50%. Mid: 45%, 30% and 25%, May, September and holidays in full, at 80% of rate. High: 55%, 40% and 35%, May, September and holidays at 130% and 140%, at 85% of rate.
Every number here comes from counted nights on your own calendar, not from a growth assumption or a portfolio average. We left out anything we could not measure, including new homes and growth. Your same-store homes already grew 11.8% without us, so this is what is left on the calendar after that. It is an estimate to plan against, not a guarantee.
The 206 homes with at least one guest night booked on or after September 1, 2026, in Beyond or PriceLabs. Homes with none, such as homes that have not hosted since May, are left out. The date is the night the guest stays, not the day the booking was made. The estimate uses 12 months of rent on those homes, with the 44 homes that started in 2026 counted as if they had a full year. Rent is before OTA commission and excludes cleaning fees and tax.
Homes signed since September with no booking yet, homes in Guesty but not yet in a pricing tool, and the 10 or more contracts a month you are signing now. Each established home adds $2,400 to $4,400 a year to this number as it comes on, so the 2027 book is worth more than the figure above. Owner rights are unchanged in every case; we only price the empty nights around an owner stay, nothing else.